UKIP leader Nigel Farage has become a familiar figure in south Essex, almost as if he was contesting a seat here rather than in Kent. In a way he is.

His latest visit is his most significant yet. With the whole country as his oyster, Mr Farage chose Thurrock to launch Ukip’s 2015 election manifesto.

Ukip, which gained its first MP in an Essex constituency, regards the south of the county as particularly fertile ground.

Local people are not necessarily slavish adherents of Ukip principles. But the region’s often volatile voting patterns display a history of impatience with the status quo. While much of Essex remains rock-hard Conservative country, in Thurrock and Basildon there is everything to play for.

The area’s history as an election barometer means all eyes will focused this way on election night. A seat gained in south Essex would be worth a lot more than a seat gained elsewhere. Ukip would bask in the role of a winner, a force to be reckoned with, the coming thing. In other respects, however, latest poll soundings suggest the Ukip tide may already be receding.

South Essex could be the making of Ukip, but if local voters turn their back on the party, it could also mark its breaking. This awareness no doubt also helped to influence Nigel Farage’s Thurrock appearance.