Southend’s census miscounted...again (From Echo)
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Council chiefs fear Southend's population may have been underestimated
8:00am Thursday 19th July 2012 in News
By Stephen Hackwell
SOUTHEND’S population may have been miscounted again, leaving council chiefs to decide if they can afford to challenge the latest census figures in courts.
Statistics released by the Government yesterday show that, according to last year’s count, there are 173,600 people living in Southend.
The figure is a 13,000 increase on the number in the 2001 census, but when population growth is taken into account, bosses at Southend Council believe they might still have been short-changed again.
The 2001 miscalculation has cost the borough an estimated £80million over the last decade in lost Government funding.
At the time, the council lost an appeal to Government officials but stopped short of taking costly legal action.
After hearing the 2011 census results, Rob Tinlin, the council’s chief executive, said he will wait for a fuller analysis before considering legal action.
He said: “It is too soon to say what our position will be.
“Obviously, the good news is the population estimate has increased, because it has cost us over the last ten years.
“But we will need to sit down and look at the evidence before we can work out what should happen next.”
In April 2001, the census claimed there were 160,256 people living within the council’s boundaries.
However, bosses were sure the actual population was far larger because of the town’s seasonal jobs, the number of people living in shared homes and ethnic minorities who might not have taken part in the survey.
Based on health and council tax records, the authority estimated the census had undercounted the number of people living in the borough by about 17,000.
While the new figure has gone up, a baby boom over the last six years is thought to have accounted for much of that increase by itself. Other factors, such as the number of immigrants and workers attracted to the town’s thriving businesses, may have also gone unrecorded.
Last year, James Duddridge, the Tory MP for Rochford and Southend East, called for the council to pursue a judicial review if it felt the 2011 result was inaccurate.
Nigel Holdcroft, the Tory council leader, said: “In my view, the figure is still too low, although obviously it is at least an improvement on 2001,” he said.
“We will be analysing the figures and considering what other evidence we have. In particular, we need to carefully balance the prospect of success of any application for judicial review with the inevitable cost.”
Comments(17)
richcarol
says...
8:42am Thu 19 Jul 12
Blind Haze
says...
9:37am Thu 19 Jul 12
In 2011, the figure was reported to be 173,600, a decrease of 3,500 on the correct figure 10 years ago.
Yep, they've got it wrong again.
notinwestcliffanymore
says...
9:46am Thu 19 Jul 12
.
well half of that sentance is true, coupled with the vast halfwit community in numerous HMOs and problem households like my ex neighbours i reckon they have under counted by at least 30,000
jayman
says...
10:57am Thu 19 Jul 12
southendshrimper
says...
12:03pm Thu 19 Jul 12
jayman wrote:here he goes again, blame SBC Tory council. They do NOT fill the census out we do. Why cant you ever blame the lame dem or laybore councillors that DID NOT VOTE? or do you blame the Torys for that as well.
but going by the council's behaviour and decision making the population of Southend is comprised purely of Tory voters that it insists of calling a silent majority, though clearly a very vocal and influential minority...
The only people you can point your finger at & blame is the people who don't complete it correctly.
jayman
says...
12:21pm Thu 19 Jul 12
southendshrimper wrote:that internal 'party political' language amuses me. It's childish and pointless. I guess you are involved in politics. Given the staggering lack of imagination, perhaps a Tory or ex Tory councillor?
jayman wrote:here he goes again, blame SBC Tory council. They do NOT fill the census out we do. Why cant you ever blame the lame dem or laybore councillors that DID NOT VOTE? or do you blame the Torys for that as well.
but going by the council's behaviour and decision making the population of Southend is comprised purely of Tory voters that it insists of calling a silent majority, though clearly a very vocal and influential minority...
The only people you can point your finger at & blame is the people who don't complete it correctly.
I fear for the lack of money allocated to essential services in Southend as a result of this miscount but i take comfort in the fact that it is approximately 80 million less that the Tory minority council will have to squander on pet projects that no man nor his dog asked for...
emcee
says...
12:56pm Thu 19 Jul 12
Ok, so we all know the population of Southend is, indeed, much higher than than the census tells us, partly due to high immigration. However, as a percentage, there are a lot more foreign nationals (both legal and illegal) and non conformists who cannot or will not return the census forms.
Also, is it any wonder that less and less people fill in the form and return it when convictions for refusal are almost non existent. It may be a legal requirement to fill in and return a census form but the law is such an @ss that it is very difficult for the authorities to convict someone even if they try. The non conformists know this. I believe the figures for non return may be the highest yet this time round.
This is why they are looking into which is a better way of gathering information on the population. I wouldn't mind betting they start to incorporate the use of health records.
soul man
says...
3:56pm Thu 19 Jul 12
reptile
says...
4:08pm Thu 19 Jul 12
Displeased of Shoebury
says...
6:00pm Thu 19 Jul 12
Give the council another free meal and they could add up the figures again
southend brummie
says...
10:26pm Thu 19 Jul 12
There is a lot of special pleading about population,and I doubt there is anything exceptional about Southend. It's certainly easier to count the population here than in London.
Incidentally the census data is very interesting, and the journalists (who can't count to 10) haven't got to grips with it at all. The ONS according to their analysis have "lost" 360,000 female (net) immigrants aged 25-44. This can't be right, and the ONS know it can't be right, which is why this has been buried deep in a technical paper, promising more analysis. Even the census is only an estimate, but it is the best one we have.
Nebs
says...
11:54pm Thu 19 Jul 12
Q2. How many people live next door?
Might get a bit closer to the truth.
Southendman
says...
12:01am Fri 20 Jul 12
Bosniavet
says...
10:04am Fri 20 Jul 12
emcee
says...
5:51pm Fri 20 Jul 12
Bosniavet wrote:They did, at the time. Any addresses that had not returned a census form had a knock at the door. Firstly by census collectors, who tried to persuade housholders to complete and return it, then by an advanced team, who had powers to caution should they be met with a refusal. However, even though I believe the numbers of non-returns to be high this time round, very few will be prosecuted. After all, you need to know who to prosecute before you can actually do it. The housholder not only has to refuse to complete the form, but also has to provide their name, something they do not have to do unless they are under arrest (which census officers cannot do). It is a similar situation to TV licence fee dodgers.
Maybe it should be checked that each address in the borough returned a completed census for, I understood it was a legal requirement to do so. Mind you, if you are an illegal immigrant (assuming there are any in the borough), you wouldn't fill in any forms.......
southendshrimper
says...
8:08pm Fri 20 Jul 12
jayman wrote:I am not in politics & never have.
southendshrimper wrote:that internal 'party political' language amuses me. It's childish and pointless. I guess you are involved in politics. Given the staggering lack of imagination, perhaps a Tory or ex Tory councillor?
jayman wrote:here he goes again, blame SBC Tory council. They do NOT fill the census out we do. Why cant you ever blame the lame dem or laybore councillors that DID NOT VOTE? or do you blame the Torys for that as well.
but going by the council's behaviour and decision making the population of Southend is comprised purely of Tory voters that it insists of calling a silent majority, though clearly a very vocal and influential minority...
The only people you can point your finger at & blame is the people who don't complete it correctly.
I fear for the lack of money allocated to essential services in Southend as a result of this miscount but i take comfort in the fact that it is approximately 80 million less that the Tory minority council will have to squander on pet projects that no man nor his dog asked for...
Alice in Her Own Land :P says...
8:11am Thu 19 Jul 12