Everything we know about the drop in Covid vaccine supplies

A leaked NHS letter shows health chiefs are bracing themselves for a significant drop in doses by March 29. 

First doses of the jab are expected to be 'constrained' for around four-weeks. 

It has inevitably led to fears about an extension of lockdown, and when people will now be given the vaccine. 

Ministers have insisted it is standard for vaccine supplies to dip up and down, so here is everything we know so far. 

What has the Government said about the drop in supplies?

Health Secretary Matt Hancock told a Downing Street press conference yesterday that there would be a focus on vaccinating the most vulnerable before moving on to the over 40s and said the Government would do “everything necessary” to ensure supplies continue.

“Vaccine supply is always lumpy and we regularly send out technical letters to the NHS to explain the ups and downs of the supply of the future weeks and what you are referring to is a standard one of those letters,” he said.

“We’re on track to offer a first dose to everyone in priority groups 1-9 by April 15.

“While we deliver on that commitment, we also want to ensure that this offer reaches everyone in groups 1-9.

“At the same time as opening up offers of vaccinations to all those who are 50 or above, we are going to do whatever it takes to reach all those in the most vulnerable groups who haven’t come forward yet."

What does this mean for people aged under 50?

A drop in supplies means the roll out of the vaccine in age groups below 50 will likely be much slower in April. 

The current daily vaccine rate in the UK is around 3.5million, but vaccination centres are now being told to close unfulfilled bookings for the whole of April.

The most vulnerable will be prioritised with NHS England saying it is “vital” that second doses are delivered on schedule.

Healthcare workers are now being advised that those under the age of 49 due to receive their vaccine should only be offered their first does in “exceptional circumstances”.

But Mr Hancock insisted yesterday that with the vaccine programme ahead of schedule in the UK, all adults were still expected to be offered a first jab by the summer. 

He added: "We are committed to all adults being able to get the jab by the end of July and we are on track to deliver on that commitment.”

What does this mean for lockdown?

Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading, has warned the drop in vaccine supplies will have “ripple effects that could last for months”.

Referring to the Government's road map out of lockdown, he added: "It will undoubtedly make the meeting of the target dates for lifting restrictions more difficult than they otherwise would have been.

“If full vaccination becomes required for holidays abroad or even more mundane things like going to the cinema, millions of younger people may end up being excluded from participating for the whole summer.”

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Despite concerns, cabinet minister Robert Jenrick has said there is “no reason to believe” the road map to easing the lockdown will be delayed by the shortage in vaccine supplies.

The Health Secretary has meanwhle said he had “no doubt” that people will be free to travel around the UK in the coming weeks.

Mr Hancock saud: “We have set out when the English restrictions will be removed and will lift the stay-at-home message as part of the road map out.

“I have no doubt that within a short few weeks everybody will be allowed to travel around the UK so long as we are able to keep this progress going.

"Both the progress in the UK-wide vaccination effort and keeping the number of cases under control.”

What's causing the delay to vaccine supplies?

A delay in the delivery of five million doses of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine from India is thought to be behind a forthcoming reduction in the UK’s supply.

The delivery had been expected from the Serum Institute of India, the BBC reported, but has been held up by four weeks.

Mr Jenrick told Sky News: “We’re sourcing vaccines from all over the world and we’re experiencing, occasionally, some issues and that has led to issue with some supply in the coming weeks.

“It’s a very complex international supply chain and that does mean occasionally we will experience issues and that’s what we’ve experienced right now.”

A Pfizer spokeswoman said deliveries “remain on track” for the first quarter of its 40 million dose agreement with the UK, with a “steady supply of vaccines” delivered to the nation.

Meanwhile, an AstraZeneca spokeswoman said: “Our UK domestic supply chain is not experiencing any disruption and there is no impact on our delivery schedule.”

Will there be any other problems with vaccine supplies?

Mr Jenrick says he is hopeful supplies will increase again following a drop in April. 

He said: “We’re going to move forward as quickly as we possibly can but it won’t be as fast as we might have hoped for a few weeks but then we have every reason to believe that supply will increase the months of May, June and July.”

But doubts have been raised over when supplies will increase amid fears the UK faces a possible block on doses from the European Union. 

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has warned the bloc “will reflect on whether exports to countries who have higher vaccination rates than us are still proportionate”.

She said she wanted “reciprocity and proportionality” in exports, pointing out that 10 million doses of vaccine had gone from the EU to the UK.

Mr Hancock said the supply of vaccines to the UK from EU production facilities was “fulfilling contractual responsibilities and we fully expect those contracts to be delivered on”.