'Covid calculator' predicts cases south Essex will have in August

As it stands Southend saw 469 cases in the seven days to July 31, just days into the school holidays. 

Thurrock saw 486, Basildon 394, Castle Point had 193 and Rochford saw 184.

The Imperial College London map predicts by August 22 as the school holidays draw to a close all areas in south Essex will have seen a drop in cases. 

The map gives a prediction of how likely each area will be seeing more than 100 cases a week. 

Here is the breakdown for south Essex:

• Thurrock - 64%
• Southend - 30% 
• Rochford - 24%
• Castle Point - 21%
• Basildon - 12%

Read more >> Covid rates fall almost 50 per cent in seven days in Basildon and Southend

The map also shows how likely this would be more than 200 cases in a week. 

Here is the breakdown for south Essex:

• Thurrock - 32%
• Southend - 9% 
• Castle Point - 6%
• Rochford - 5%
• Basildon - 2%

The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to report a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

It comes as the  Government said a further 92 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Friday, bringing the UK total to 130,178.

Separate figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there have been 155,000 deaths registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

As of 9am on Friday, there had been a further 31,808 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK, the Government said.

Government data up to August 5 shows that of the 86,009,359 Covid jabs given in the UK, 46,961,830 were first doses, a rise of 35,500 on the previous day.

Some 39,047,529 were second doses, an increase of 172,692.