Four key reasons for Newcastle United's backwards slide this season

The campaign has hardly been a disaster, but in Eddie Howe’s own words, ‘it has not gone as would have been hoped’. What have been the reasons for the Magpies’ failure to build on last season’s achievements?

INJURIES

Nick Pope suffered a shoulder injury in December's win over Manchester United (Image: PA)

All teams get injuries at some stage, but when it comes to the Premier League, no one has suffered as badly as Newcastle this season.

At the start of this month, the Magpies had lost a combined total of 1,333 minutes of first-team action through player unavailability because of injury. That is significantly more than any other top-flight side, with Brentford sitting in second position on the chart on 1,159 minutes. By means of comparison, Wolves have suffered the least injury issues, losing just 316 days of player availability.

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It hasn’t just been the length of the absences that have proved crippling either, Newcastle have also been badly affected by the number of players suffering injury issues. At the start of the month, the Magpies had suffered 29 separate injury incidents, again a Premier League high.

Key players have been absent for lengthy spells, with Nick Pope, Sven Botman, Matt Targett, Harvey Barnes, Elliot Anderson, Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock, Joelinton and Callum Wilson all having been unavailable for a period of at least a month.

Crucially, the injuries have often been concentrated in certain areas of the pitch, with midfield and the wide-attacking positions proving especially problematic. With so many players sidelined at the same time, Howe has had to keep selecting a small core group of players, who have not been able to operate at full tilt because of the physical demands being made of them. As a result, individually and collectively, Newcastle have run out of steam.

THE SCHEDULE

Joelinton fires in a shot against AC Milan (Image: PA)

Qualifying for the Champions League was a huge achievement for Newcastle, and supporters understandably relished the chance to travel to Milan, Dortmund and Paris to watch their team. The Magpies failed to make it beyond the group stage, but nevertheless performed creditably as they returned to European football’s top table for the first time in two decades.

However, Champions League qualification proved a double-edged sword given that is hugely increased Newcastle’s fixture demands at a time when their injury issues were just beginning to bite.

Last season, the Magpies played 18 matches before Christmas Day. This term, that figure had leapt to 27 games, an increase of 50 per cent. Ignoring international breaks, Newcastle did not have a single spare midweek between the middle of September and middle of November.

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It wasn’t just the number of games that was a factor either, it was the standard of the matches Newcastle were playing. Had they been in the group stages of the Conference League, perhaps Howe would have been able to rest four or five players for European home games. In the Champions League, that was never going to be possible.

When asked about Newcastle’s form in the wake of Saturday’s FA Cup tie, Pep Guardiola was quick to highlight the demands of the Champions League as the key factor in the club’s failure to challenge for another top-four spot. “This is the first time they’ve played in four competitions,” said the Manchester City boss. “That means playing every three days, especially at the beginning. When it’s the first time, it’s not easy for any club.”

RECRUITMENT

Sandro Tonali was banned for ten months for breaching betting regulations (Image: PA)

With the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules constraining them, Newcastle’s chief operating officer, Darren Eales, has admitted the club “cannot afford to get any of their signings wrong”. Well, last summer, they made a series of missteps that have had a significant adverse effect on their performances this season.

Spending a club-record £55m on Sandro Tonali became a disaster the moment the Italian midfielder was suspended for ten months for breaching betting rules, but while Newcastle’s executive team can argue they had no way of knowing what was around the corner when they agreed a deal with AC Milan, it is arguable whether their flagship summer signing was the player they needed anyway.

The Magpies have been crying out for a natural defensive-midfielder for at least a couple of seasons, hence the repeated links to Kalvin Phillips in the summer. Tonali was never going to be ideally suited to playing as a shield in front of the back four – most of his strengths are similar to those of Bruno Guimaraes – and even when he was playing in the first two months of the season, Newcastle’s midfield mix never really felt right.

Barnes’ Newcastle career has been truncated through injury, but is the former Leicester winger really an upgrade on Allan Saint-Maximin, the player who was sacrificed to enable the Magpies to make their summer signings and not fall foul of FFP?

Then there was the signing of Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall, players bought ‘with an eye on the future’ at a time when Newcastle needed strengthening in the present. Livramento has gradually eased his way into the first-team picture, but Hall has made just one Premier League start despite Newcastle being committed to spend £28m to turn his loan deal from Chelsea into a permanent switch this summer. At the moment, that does not feel like good business.

SELECTION

Newcastle United head coach Eddie Howe (Image: PA)

How much blame does Howe have to shoulder for this season’s backward slide? As outlined above, there are plenty of mitigating factors to explain results and performances this term, but while it is hard to see how any head coach could have dealt with the cards Newcastle have been dealt over the course of the last seven months, some of Howe’s selection decisions merit scrutiny.

Is the Magpies head coach too reluctant to drop some of the players that performed so well for him last season, even if they are clearly not operating at the peak of their powers?

Sven Botman has struggled since returning from a knee injury, but has only missed the FA Cup fifth-round win at Blackburn. Should he have been rotated more frequently with Jamaal Lascelles? Dan Burn’s form has also been somewhat erratic in the last few months, yet he has started every league game since returning from a back problem in mid-December. Shouldn’t Howe at least have given Hall a chance to prove himself in the starting line-up, or turned to Targett once the left-back recovered from an injury issue of his own?

Sean Longstaff has looked tired in the last few weeks, but Howe will rightly claim he did not have any options to replace the midfielder. That is not the case now, with Anderson back in the fold and Lewis Miley refreshed after his own break from the starting side. Will that lead to an increased willingness to change things after the international break?

Howe’s preferred system has also remained unchanged despite his side’s defensive struggles in the last couple of months. Saturday’s switch to a five-man backline at the Etihad was a rarity, and almost certainly reflected a one-off desire to contain Manchester City’s attacking threat rather than a longer-term desire to tinker.

Is a tweak to the system needed though, especially when Newcastle are currently deprived of Joelinton’s aggression and energy? Howe will argue his preferred approach led the Magpies into the top four last season. As results and performances prove, though, it hasn’t been as effective this time around.