What do the election results mean for the main parties and a general election?

In what was the last major test of public opinion before the country chooses the next government, the PA news agency looks at the implications of the results for political parties and the timing, and potential outcome, of the general election.

– How has the Government responded to the results?

Elections experts have said the Conservatives could lose 500 council seats in potentially the party’s worst showing at local elections in 40 years.

Painful defeat in the Blackpool South by-election saw a 26.33% swing to Labour from the Tories, the third largest since the Second World War.

The task of finding a positive take on events is an unenviable one, with a danger that misplaced optimism or a stretched interpretation could be perceived as unrealistic.

Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden fell back on a common position in these circumstances by admitting it has been a “tough night” but a “typical” one for a mid-term Government.

– What has Labour had to say?

There is a renewed sense of optimism within the Labour Party after what appears to have been a very positive night for the Opposition, with a particular focus on victory in the Blackpool South by-election.

With a demand that will only increase in frequency, the constituency’s new MP Chris Webb called on the Prime Minister to “admit you have failed and call a general election”.

During a visit to the town, Sir Keir Starmer called it a “seismic win”  and  a “giant step” towards power for Labour.

“That wasn’t just a little message, that wasn’t just a murmur, that was a shout from Blackpool,” he said.

– What have the other parties said?

Reform UK’s leader Richard Tice told the PA news agency his party had “rapidly become the real opposition to Labour, whether it’s in the North, the Midlands, we know it’s the case in Wales”.

The 16.9% of the vote that the party secured in Blackpool South is its best performance in a Westminster by-election, beating a previous high of 10.4% in Kingswood earlier this year.

The Liberal Democrats have improved their councillor count by 18 at the time of writing, with the party saying they expect to put further holes in the “blue wall” of Tory battleground seats in southern England.

The Green Party has gained 13 councillors, with the hope of making further progress in key targets including Bristol, Worcester, Stroud and Hastings.

– What do the results mean for the timing of a general election?

The victory for Tory incumbent Lord Houchen in the Teesside mayoral election will be viewed by the party as a welcome win for a party firmly on the back foot, particularly as there has been some controversy over his handling of regeneration in the area.

This will provide some optimism that the Tory brand has not been entirely tainted for voters, particularly when party representatives are perceived to be delivering on their promises locally.

The Prime Minister has continued to rule out calling a general election in July as he keeps everyone guessing,

But it is difficult to see, despite the welcome result in Teesside, why he would opt to go to the polls two months after such a bruising set of results.

Labour will keep up the pressure as they sense political blood, but it currently looks likely the Prime Minister will want more time to try to obscure the memory of voters abandoning the party en masse.

More big policy moves will follow but progress on issues such as migration and the economy will take more time, leading to autumn still being considered the most likely option.

– What do the results mean for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s leadership?

The emergence of significant discord among Tory MPs, including firm evidence of a leadership challenge, would complicate the timing of a general election further.

Ministers have previously said that the local election results will not shift their support for the Prime Minister, but it remains to be seen whether this position holds.

Seemingly anticipating a strong reaction from within the party, Tory chairman Richard Holden appealed to restive MPs to “wait through the weekend”, saying Rishi Sunak is “the right man” to lead the party.

But jeopardy for the Prime Minister could still emerge from the backbenches, where influential MPs who have previously demonstrated a taste for trouble could be spooked into action by both the scale of losses and the performance of Reform UK.

With this in mind, Lord Houchen’s victory could buy precious time for the Prime Minister.

– What do the results potentially tell us about the outcome of a general election?

Polling experts are clear that the Conservative vote has collapsed since 2021 and Labour has made big gains.

Talking to Sky News, Professor Michael Thrasher rejected Tory claims that the results were normal for a mid-term Government, saying the results were “very bad news” for the Conservatives.

He highlighted that the 2019 general election victory was built on the support of people who had voted to leave the European Union, but said the Tory vote in areas that voted most strongly for Brexit had now collapsed by nearly 18%.

Meanwhile, Sir John Curtice said the scale of Tory losses so far will worry the party.

But with many results yet to be declared, assessments of the detailed implications for the outcome of a general election will come later.

– What are the lessons to be learned for Labour?

With what is likely to be a very positive set of results for Labour and ongoing leads in the polls, the biggest danger for Labour appears to be complacency.

But there are still lessons to be learned from the results.

Labour’s position on Gaza has caused problems and led to a loss of support in areas where the party would expect to do well.

There have been multiple defections since last October, including the loss of 11 councillors in Burnley in November.

Former Labour MP George Galloway has capitalised on the Gaza issue, winning the Rochdale by-election in February and pledging to challenge Labour with a series of pro-Palestinian candidates at the general election.

A backlash over Labour’s position on Gaza saw the party lose control of Oldham Council, with independent candidates, several of whom explicitly campaigned in support of Palestine, gaining five seats on Thursday, pushing the council into no overall control.

Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator Pat McFadden acknowledged the crisis in Gaza had been “a factor in some places”, but added that “very local factors” had also played a role in the town.