Analysis: How hard would Sam Dalby's departure hit Southend United?

Southend United currently have forwards Harry Cardwell and Rhys Murphy unavailable through injury, leaving Sam Dalby and new signing Chris Wreh as the only options to play through the middle of the front three in Kevin Maher’s preferred 3-4-3 formation.

In the following article I will assess Dalby’s strengths and weaknesses using some data, and weigh up the pros and cons of a potential transfer away from the club.

First, we have to consider Southend’s style of play.

It’s well known that Maher has set us up to be a team that aims to pass the ball out from defence to attack.

Whilst this is true, if there are no passing options for our defenders or they’re put under pressure from opposition players, we instead look to play the ball long up to the centre forward.

In last season’s National League, Southend played the second most long passes of all 23 teams.

During matches you may have noticed that our wingers are positioned narrower than you’d expect wingers to be, with our wing backs providing the width in our team.

One benefit of this is that it helps ensure that our centre forward isn’t isolated, so that we have a greater chance of keeping possession once the forward has the ball under control after receiving a long pass from our defence.

Last season for Southend, Harry Cardwell won 41.75 per cent of his 16.42 attempted aerial duels per 90 minutes, whereas Dalby won 38.38 per cent of his attempted 11.44.

Although Dalby’s numbers are good, they’re not quite as good as Cardwell’s.

Cardwell is also the stronger of the two, and in my opinion more effective at shielding the ball from opposition defenders, making him the better option to play as a target man.

Last season Cardwell had a non-penalty expected goals per 90 figure of 0.28, compared to Dalby’s 0.15.

This means that per 90 minutes, Cardwell was expected to score almost twice as many goals than Dalby was.

Statistically, Dalby doesn’t look like as much of a goal threat than Cardwell.

I think this explains why Dalby has been the subject of some criticism from parts of the fanbase, and whilst this criticism is valid, in my opinion Dalby is underrated by some.

Dalby still managed to score nine league goals last season for a team that scored the fourth fewest amount of goals in the division, and largely struggled to create chances until the second half of the season.

He also had better numbers than Cardwell for a range of creativity metrics, including: expected assists, passes to opposition penalty area and key passes (all per 90 minutes).

When you look at Dalby’s heatmap (below) from last season’s National League there was a bias towards the right hand side of the pitch.

This shows that he was predominantly used on the right side of our front three – the same position Dan Mooney is expected to play for us this season.

In my opinion, all of this shows that Dalby’s best position for us in our current system is either side of our centre forward, and he isn’t really suited to play the lone striker role.

I think his technical ability isn’t always best showcased when he’s playing as a target man and often goes unnoticed, leading to some criticism when he’s essentially being asked to do something that doesn’t play to his strengths.

This is why I think Dalby is our most underrated player.

With Cardwell and  Murphy out injured and promising new signing Chris Wreh as yet unproven at this level, Dalby is the obvious choice to lead the line.

However, when Cardwell is fully fit, I wouldn’t expect Dalby to start ahead of him or Dan Mooney on the right.

As big of a fan of his as I am, it’s for this reason that I think if a sensible offer comes in for him, we have to at least listen to it.

I’m not sure we’re in a financial position to turn down good money for a player who arguably wouldn’t be in the starting XI when everyone is available.

Although Dalby wasn’t a Kevin Maher signing, it would also highlight the change in transfer policy at the club – bringing in younger players with potential resale value who we can make a profit on.

Obviously as we already have a couple of injuries in that area of the pitch, and with the season just over a week away, the timing couldn’t be much worse.

A replacement would ideally need to be lined up and ready to come into the team almost straight away, and any money we do receive from a potential Dalby transfer could help to fund this.

If Dalby does leave, I’d like us to bring in an effective target man who’s able to hold the ball up and can challenge Cardwell for a place in the team once he's back from injury.

Ultimately money talks in football, and every player has a price.

I’d love us to keep Dalby, but if he were to leave it may not be quite the disaster that it first seemed, as long as an effective replacement is brought in.

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