An online ‘Covid calculator’ has predicted how many cases of Covid south Essex will be seeing after the first two weeks of the school term.

As it stands Southend saw 358 cases in the seven days to August 29, just days before the school holidays ended. 

Thurrock saw 422, Basildon 429, Castle Point had 170 and Rochford saw 166.

The Imperial College London map predicts by September 12, two weeks into the new school term, all areas in south Essex will have seen a rise in cases. 

The map gives a prediction of how likely each area will be seeing more than 200 cases a week. 

Here is the breakdown for south Essex:

  • Basildon - 59%
  • Rochford - 57%
  • Thurrock - 47%
  • Castle Point - 38%
  • Southend - 35% 

Read more >> 'Covid calculator' map predicts how many cases south Essex will have by end of school holidays

The map also shows how likely this would be more than 300 cases in a week. 

Here is the breakdown for south Essex:

  • Basildon - 37%
  • Rochford - 36%
  • Thurrock - 24%
  • Castle Point - 21%
  • Southend - 16% 

It also shows there is a 15 per cent probability Rochford would have 500 or more cases and a 14 per cent probability Basildon would see more cases. 

Of the 377 local areas in the UK, 134 (36%) have seen a week-on-week rise in rates, 239 (63%) have seen a fall and four are unchanged.

The highest rates are all in Scotland.

North Lanarkshire has the highest rate, with 4,266 new cases in the seven days to August 29 – the equivalent of 1,250.5 per 100,000 people.

This is up sharply from 554.3 in the seven days to August 22.

East Dunbartonshire has the second highest rate, up from 670.3 to 1,211.0, with 1,317 new cases.

Inverclyde has the third highest rate, up from 525.6 to 1,139.4, with 878 new cases.